As Bangladesh prepares for its general elections scheduled for 12 February, the political landscape remains tense with the Awami League (AL) operating from exile. Following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in July 2024, the party has been officially banned from participating in the electoral process by the interim government. However, reports indicate that the AL leadership is actively drafting a comeback strategy from safe havens in India, specifically Delhi and Kolkata, aiming to influence the political narrative within Bangladesh from across the border.
The 2024 Uprising and Political Exile
The political shift in Bangladesh was triggered by a massive student-led uprising in July 2024, which resulted in the departure of the then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. According to a United Nations report, the unrest led to approximately 1400 fatalities. Following Hasina's arrival in India, a significant number of AL leaders and workers also fled the country. Currently, over 600 senior party members are reportedly stationed in Kolkata, maintaining a clandestine organizational structure to keep the party's influence alive despite the domestic ban.
Operational Hubs in Delhi and Kolkata
The Awami League's current operations are centered around two major Indian cities, while sheikh Hasina, residing in a secure location in Delhi, continues to provide strategic direction to the party. Senior leaders from Kolkata are frequently summoned to the capital for high-level briefings. These meetings focus on mobilizing the party's remaining grassroots network in Bangladesh and coordinating a unified response to the upcoming elections. The objective is to maintain a shadow presence that can be activated should the political climate in Dhaka shift.
Strategy of Delegitimization and Boycott
Since the interim government has barred the Awami League from contesting, the party has adopted a strategy of delegitimization, while by labeling the 12 February polls as 'illegal' and 'farcical,' the AL leadership has urged its supporters to boycott the voting process. The intent, according to political observers, is to ensure a low voter turnout, which the party can then cite as a lack of public mandate for the interim administration. This tactical withdrawal is designed to challenge the credibility of the electoral outcome on international platforms.
Legal Hurdles and the Interim Government's Mandate
The path to a political return is fraught with severe legal challenges for the AL leadership. Sheikh Hasina and several top officials face numerous charges, including corruption and crimes against humanity, while a War Crimes Tribunal in Bangladesh has already issued significant rulings against the former leadership. While the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus maintains that the ban is necessary for a fair transition, the Awami League characterizes these actions as political vendetta. The party is banking on the possibility of post-election instability to justify its relevance.
Expert Analysis and Future Outlook
According to political analysts, the absence of the Awami League from the ballot creates a unique political vacuum in Bangladesh. While the interim government focuses on state reforms, the AL's activities from India suggest a long-term plan to wait out the current administration. Experts suggest that the success of the AL's strategy depends heavily on the international community's recognition of the election results. As the 12 February deadline approaches, the maneuvers of the exiled leadership remain a critical factor in the regional geopolitical equation.