Bihar Elections 2025: Phase 1 Sees Bumper Turnout in 18 Districts, Over 7% More Than 2020

The first phase of the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 has concluded with a record-breaking voter turnout, sparking fresh debates among political analysts and parties alike. In all 18 districts covered in the initial phase, voters demonstrated greater enthusiasm compared to the 2020 assembly elections, leading to a significant increase in the overall polling percentage. These districts collectively witnessed an average increase of over seven. Percent in voter turnout, which stands as a crucial democratic indicator.

Bumper Turnout and Political Claims

In the first phase, a substantial number of voters exercised their franchise across 121 seats spread across 18 districts. Following this impressive turnout, leaders from various political parties immediately began asserting that the increased voting was clear evidence of public support for their respective alliances. This situation is heightening anticipation and uncertainty regarding the election results, as each party is confidently claiming victory.

NDA's Confidence and Claims of Victory

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leaders have interpreted the heightened voter turnout as a strong mandate in favor of their government. Bihar's Deputy Chief Minister, Samrat Chaudhary, expressed confidence immediately after the first phase of voting, stating that the NDA would secure at least one hundred out of the 121 seats contested in this phase. This declaration has generated a wave of enthusiasm within the NDA camp. Chirag Paswan, chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), echoed similar sentiments, asserting that the. First phase of polling has definitively established that an NDA government will be formed in Bihar.

JDU's Analysis: Good Governance and Women Voters' Support

Sanjay Jha, the Executive President of the Janata Dal (United) (JDU), also attributed the increased voting to support for the NDA government. Sanjay Jha argued that historically, an increase in voter turnout has often led to the return of the incumbent government, a trend he believes will repeat this time. He particularly emphasized the significant participation of women voters, stating that women cast their votes for the NDA in the name of security and good governance. This indicates that the NDA perceives its agenda of women's empowerment and law and order as having resonated successfully with the electorate.

Mahagathbandhan's Declaration of Victory and Opposition's Counter-Claims

Conversely, the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) has also declared the increased voter turnout as a sign of their impending victory. Tejashwi Yadav, the Mahagathbandhan's Chief Ministerial face, claimed that the bumper voting has sealed the Mahagathbandhan's triumph. This statement aims to energize the workers and supporters of the Grand Alliance, while however, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath dismissed the Mahagathbandhan's claims, unequivocally stating that after the first phase of polling, it's clear that there is no place for the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar. This statement highlights the sharp exchange of words between the two opposing blocs.

Prashant Kishor's 'X-Factor' Analysis

Election strategist Prashant Kishor offered a distinct perspective on the bumper voting in the first phase. He suggested that not only women but also migrant laborers would prove to be 'X-factors' in this election, while prashant Kishor claimed that over 60 percent of the public in Bihar desires change, and this time, the electorate has voted for a new alternative. His analysis adds another dimension to the election outcomes, emphasizing new factors beyond traditional political equations.

Implications of the Increased Turnout

The district-wise data from the first phase of polling clearly indicates a significant increase compared to the 2020 elections. Among the 18 districts, Munger recorded the highest increase of 12, while 1%, with turnout rising from 51. 1% in 2020 to 63. 2% in 2025. This was followed by Samastipur, which saw a 10. 0% increase, moving from 61. 2% to 71. 2%. Lakhisarai registered a 9. 7% increase (from 55. 3% to 65. 0%), and Gopalganj recorded a 9. 2% increase (from 57, while 3% to 66. 5%). Saharsa experienced an 8, while 7% rise (from 60. 4% to 69. 1%), and Muzaffarpur saw an 8, while 4% increase (from 63. 0% to 71. 4%). Begusarai reported a 7. 8% increase (from 61. 7% to 69. 5%), and Saran recorded a 7. 5% increase (from 56. 1% to 63. 6%). Khagaria saw a 6. 4% increase (from 61. 2% to 67. 6%), Patna a 6. 5% increase (from 51. 9% to 58. 4%), Buxar a 5, while 7% increase (from 56. 1% to 61. 8%), and Darbhanga a 5, while 6% increase (from 57. 7% to 63, while 3%). Bhojpur registered a 5. 5% increase (from 53. 4% to 58. 9%), while Nalanda and Sheikhpura both saw a 5, while 3% increase, with Nalanda moving from 54. 0% to 59. 3% and Sheikhpura from 56. 4% to 61. 7%. The lowest increases were observed in Siwan and Madhepura, at 4. 4% and 4, while 9% respectively, with Siwan going from 56. 1% to 60. 5% and Madhepura from 64. 1% to 69. 0%. Vaishali also recorded a 4. 9% increase (from 62. 7% to 67, while 6%). These figures clearly demonstrate that Bihar's electorate has made a concerted effort to increase their participation this time, strengthening their faith in democracy. This overall increase in voter turnout reflects the growing interest of the people of Bihar in the democratic process and their awareness of their right to vote. All political parties are attempting to use this increase to their advantage, but the true outcomes will only become clear after the vote counting. It will be interesting to observe whether this heightened turnout is indeed indicative of an 'anti-incumbency' or 'pro-incumbency' wave,. Or if it's simply a result of a renewed voter awareness that could lead to either change or continuity.