The political landscape of Bangladesh is witnessing a seismic shift as former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hints at retirement just before the upcoming general elections. This move is being viewed by political analysts not just as a departure, but as a calculated masterstroke designed to reshape the electoral dynamics. By stepping back, Hasina aims to trigger an emotional wave among her supporters while her party, the Awami League, fortifies its position through a strategic alliance with the Jatiya Party.
The Emotional Retirement Card
Sajeeb Wazed, son of Sheikh Hasina, has indicated that his mother had already decided to step away from active politics, while at 78, following the 2024 uprising that forced her to leave Dhaka, health and age have become primary factors. However, the timing of this announcement is crucial. By positioning her exit as the end of an era, the Awami. League hopes to consolidate its traditional vote bank through a sympathy wave. Wazed emphasized that the Awami League, being a 70-year-old institution, will continue to thrive even without Hasina at the helm.
Why Back the Jatiya Party?
With the Awami League facing significant hurdles in contesting directly, the party has opted for a 'behind-the-scenes' support system for the Jatiya Party. According to reports from The Business Standard Bangladesh, several prominent Awami League leaders are contesting under the Jatiya Party banner, while key candidates like Elias Hussain (Tangail-1) and Tarek Shams (Tangail-6) are spearheading this hybrid campaign. This tactical move allows the Awami League to maintain its influence without being the direct target of political backlash.
The 151 Seat Challenge
Elections for the 300-seat parliament are scheduled for February 12. To form a government, a party or coalition needs 151 seats, while the current battle is largely perceived as a contest between the BNP-Jamaat alliance and other factions. Hasina’s strategy is clear: if the Jatiya Party emerges as a kingmaker, it could pave the way for the Awami League’s eventual return to power in Dhaka. This maneuver is also designed to prevent the BNP-Jamaat combine from gaining an absolute majority.
Neutralizing the BNP-Jamaat Influence
A recent survey by Prothom Alo suggested that 26% of the. Population still believes the Awami League should be allowed to contest. To use this support, the party is using the Jatiya. Party as a proxy to push the Jamaat-e-Islami into third place. By creating a strong third front, Hasina aims to disrupt the bipolar nature of Bangladeshi politics and ensure that her party's legacy remains a decisive factor in the nation's future.