Bangladesh Elections: Tarique Rahman's Return: A Bigger Threat to Sheikh Hasina Than Muhammad Yunus?

Tarique Rahman's recent re-entry into Bangladesh's political landscape has Notably escalated the challenges faced by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Already grappling with issues involving Muhammad Yunus and his associates, the Awami League now confronts a formidable adversary in Rahman, whose party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), stands as the nation's largest political force. Rahman is widely considered a strong contender for the prime ministerial post in the upcoming. Elections, a development that has cast a shadow over the Awami League's hopes for another term. His return to Dhaka comes at a critical juncture, just as Sheikh Hasina and her party were anticipating a renewed political momentum.

Tarique Rahman's Political Resurgence

The timing of Tarique Rahman's return is particularly impactful, injecting a new dynamic into the already charged political atmosphere of Bangladesh, while his presence immediately shifted the focus of the upcoming elections. Following his re-entry, the Election Commission promptly clarified that the Awami League wouldn't be permitted to contest the. Forthcoming elections, a decision that further complicates Sheikh Hasina's political future and underscores the profound implications of Rahman's return. This move by the Election Commission signals a potential restructuring of the political power balance, with the BNP poised to play a central role.

Why Tarique Poses a Greater Threat than Yunus

The political rivalry between Tarique Rahman and Sheikh Hasina is deeply rooted and far more intense than the current friction involving Muhammad Yunus. Several factors contribute to why Rahman is perceived as a more significant threat to Hasina's political dominance. The nature of their past interactions and the potential for future actions against the Awami League distinguish Rahman's challenge from that posed by Yunus.

International Standing and India's Dilemma

Muhammad Yunus, currently serving as an advisor in the. Interim government, isn't taken with significant seriousness by many international bodies, including India. His government has repeatedly written to India requesting Sheikh Hasina's return from Delhi, but India has refrained from commenting, citing the ongoing elections. Tarique Rahman's situation, however, is markedly different. If his party secures victory in the next elections and subsequently writes to India regarding Sheikh Hasina, India would face a diplomatic quandary. The Indian government would be reluctant to displease an elected government, a scenario that wouldn't be favorable for Sheikh Hasina. This potential shift in diplomatic use highlights the strategic importance of Rahman's political ascent.

History of Persecution and Retribution

Unlike Muhammad Yunus, who has been a beneficiary of Sheikh Hasina's government, Tarique Rahman and his party members have endured significant persecution under her administration. Rahman himself faced 84 lawsuits during Sheikh Hasina's tenure, and his mother, Khaleda Zia, was imprisoned. Plus, between 2013 and 2015, approximately 2,000 members of Tarique Rahman's party were arrested and incarcerated. The BNP was also barred from participating in the 2024 general elections in Bangladesh. It's highly improbable that Tarique Rahman would overlook these political grievances, suggesting a strong motivation for seeking redress should he come to power.

The Cycle of Power and Retaliation

For the past 35 years, Bangladesh's political landscape has been dominated by two main parties: Sheikh Hasina's Awami League and Khaleda Zia's BNP, with power alternating between them, while this historical pattern has often seen significant actions taken against the opposition party when the other is in power. Consequently, there is a strong expectation that if Tarique Rahman's government comes to power this time, the Awami League could face similar retaliatory actions. Tarique Rahman would likely seek to neutralize any future threats posed by Sheikh Hasina, ensuring his government's stability and preventing a recurrence of past persecutions. This historical cycle of political vendetta underscores the high stakes involved in the upcoming elections.