Third COVID-19 wave seems unlikely to be as severe as the 2nd wave: ICMR study

New Delhi: The third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic may not be as severe as the second wave, and scaling up the vaccination drive may help mitigate it, says a study conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research in collaboration with Imperial College of London.

The study, based on mathematical modelling analysis, shows that the new variant is unlikely to cause a new wave unless it leads to a complete loss of immune protection from a previous infection. A more transmissible variant would have to cross the reproduction number threshold of 4.5 to cause a third wave, said the study.

“Rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease,” the study added.

“This study demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave. Model projections are, however, subject to several uncertainties, and it remains important to scale up vaccination coverage...” it said.