The weather in Delhi-NCR and several parts of North India took a sudden and dramatic turn on Thursday, as dark clouds enveloped the sky followed by heavy rainfall. Cities including Delhi, Noida, and Gurugram experienced significant downpours, leading to a noticeable drop in the daytime temperature. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has responded to these conditions by issuing an orange alert for the region, warning of moderate to heavy rain, thunderstorms, and the potential for lightning strikes.
IMD Forecast and Rainfall Intensity
According to the India Meteorological Department, Delhi is expected to witness moderate to heavy rainfall with an intensity ranging from 5 to 15 millimeters per hour. This weather activity is likely to be accompanied by persistent thunderstorms and lightning. Plus, the IMD has warned of gusty winds reaching speeds of 40 to 60 kilometers per hour, which could impact local movement and temporary structures. The weather office has predicted that intermittent rain will continue across various parts of the national capital throughout the day.
Temperature Trends in the Capital
3 degrees Celsius. 7 degrees Celsius higher than the seasonal average. However, the maximum temperature is expected to hover around 29 degrees Celsius, which marks a significant decrease from the usual heat experienced during this time of the year. This dip in the maximum temperature is attributed to the cloud cover and continuous rainfall. In comparison, the normal maximum temperature at the Safdarjung observatory for this period is typically around 33 degrees Celsius. While today might see the mercury stay between 29 and 30 degrees Celsius, the IMD expects temperatures to return to normal levels within the next 2 to 3 days.
Expert Insights on the Western Disturbance
Meteorologist Akhil Srivastava has provided technical insights into this sudden shift in weather patterns. He explained that the current atmospheric changes are primarily driven by a Western Disturbance. This system is affecting the entire North-West India region, particularly the hilly states and their adjoining plains. The influence of this disturbance is manifesting as rain, snowfall in higher altitudes, and thunderstorms in the plains. Srivastava noted that while the South-West Monsoon has already retreated from the country, the current rainfall is strictly a result of this Western Disturbance and not a continuation of the monsoon.
Atmospheric Conditions and Regional Impact
The IMD has identified specific atmospheric circulations contributing to the weather. A circulation is currently observed at an altitude of approximately 4 kilometers over the northern parts of Punjab. Also, a cyclonic circulation has formed over the southern parts of Haryana, which is triggering thunderstorms in the vicinity. 8 kilometers around 72 degrees East Longitude on October 15. As this system moves eastward, its impact is expected to diminish. While Delhi might see continued rain today, the intensity is likely to decrease by tomorrow.
Alerts Across North India
The impact of the Western Disturbance is widespread across North India. The IMD has issued an orange alert for Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Haryana, indicating a need for residents to stay prepared for significant weather events. Western Uttar Pradesh has been placed under a yellow alert. In Jammu and Kashmir, authorities have issued warnings for thunderstorms accompanied by hailstorms, while while the system is moving east, Uttarakhand may still experience rain and thunderstorms tomorrow, even as conditions begin to stabilize in other states.
Is Winter Arriving Early?
Despite the sudden chill and rain on October 15, the weather department has clarified that this doesn't signal the official arrival of winter in North India. The current drop in daytime temperature is a temporary result of cloud cover and rain. Interestingly, when a Western Disturbance approaches, the increased cloud cover often leads to a rise in minimum night temperatures. Once the system moves further east and the skies clear, the temperatures are expected to return to their normal seasonal levels. So, the current weather is a transient phase caused by atmospheric disturbances rather than the onset of the winter season.