The MATRIZE exit poll results for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections have indicated a potential shift in the state's political landscape. According to the projections, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is poised to secure a clear majority in the 140-member assembly. The exit poll estimates that the UDF could win between 70 and 75 seats, surpassing the majority mark. On the other hand, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is projected to secure 60-65 seats, potentially losing its hold on the only state where the Left is currently in power.
Seat Projections and Vote Share Breakdown
Regional Analysis: Malabar, Central, and South Kerala
The MATRIZE exit poll provides a detailed regional breakdown of the 140 assembly seats. In the Malabar region, which consists of 48 seats, the UDF is expected to dominate with 28-31 seats, while the LDF may secure 11-14 seats. The BJP is projected to win 02-04 seats in this region, with others also taking 02-04 seats. In Central Kerala's 44 seats, the UDF is predicted to win 23-25 seats, followed by the LDF with 17-19 seats. The BJP is estimated to get 01-02 seats, and others 00-01 seat. In South Kerala, which also has 48 seats, the UDF leads with a projection of 25-27 seats, while the LDF is expected to win 16-18 seats and the BJP 02-04 seats. Others may secure 01-03 seats in the southern part of the state.
Key Candidates and Political Significance
The 2026 Kerala elections are highly significant as they test the survival of the Left government in its last remaining bastion in India. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and senior BJP leader Rajeev Chandrasekhar are among the prominent figures whose electoral fates are being closely watched, while both the LDF and UDF alliances contested all 140 seats with full intensity. The BJP, under the NDA banner, also put in significant effort to increase its footprint in the state. The exit poll suggests that if these numbers hold true during the official counting, the UDF will return to power, ending the LDF's tenure.
Vote Percentage and Impact of Others
5%. 4% of the total votes, reflecting its attempt to establish a triangular contest in several constituencies. 4% of the votes, potentially winning 02 to 04 seats. These exit poll figures suggest that the electorate may have favored a change in government, providing the UDF with the necessary numbers to form the next administration in Kerala.