NITI Aayog, the premier policy think-tank of the Government of India, has released long-term projections indicating that coal consumption in the country could more than double by the middle of the century, while despite a significant push toward renewable energy, the report highlights that coal will continue to play a foundational role in meeting India's burgeoning energy requirements. The transition to cleaner sources is expected to eventually curb this growth, but the immediate decades show a continued reliance on fossil fuels.
62 billion metric tons in 2050.26 billion metric tons. 80 billion tons if current trends persist.
Current Policy Projections and Peak Demand
The report details that in a business-as-usual environment, the trajectory of coal usage remains upward for the next 25 years. The primary drivers for this sustained demand are the power sector and heavy industries such as steel and cement. According to the analysis, even as the share of renewables in the energy mix grows, the absolute volume of coal required to support economic expansion and urbanization will continue to rise. This underscores the challenge of decoupling economic growth from carbon-intensive energy sources in a developing economy.
Transition Path Towards 2070 Net Zero Goal
India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, and the NITI Aayog report outlines a specific pathway for this scenario. 83 billion tons by 2050. Following this peak, a sharp decline is anticipated, with consumption falling to just 161 million tons by 2070. In this future, coal usage would be almost entirely restricted to hard-to-abate sectors where alternative technologies aren't yet commercially viable at scale.
Role of Coal in Power Generation and Heavy Industry
India is currently the world's second-largest consumer of coal, relying on it for nearly three-quarters of its electricity generation. To meet the forecasted surge in power demand, the government aims to increase coal-based power generation capacity from the current 212 GW to 307 GW by 2034-35. The report notes that coal remains essential in the near term to support the integration of increasing solar and wind capacity and to ensure grid stability. Coal plants are expected to function as critical backup during periods of low renewable output.
Strategic Requirements for Clean Energy Shift
For India to successfully transition away from coal, the report identifies several critical infrastructure and technological prerequisites, while these include the large-scale deployment of battery storage systems, a significant increase in nuclear energy capacity, and the extensive expansion of the national power grid. On top of that, reducing the cost of clean technologies is vital, while the report also suggests that as the transition progresses, many coal-fired plants will operate less frequently, serving primarily to meet peak demand or emergency requirements rather than base-load needs.
Attribution-Based Analysis and Conclusion
According to analysts, the NITI Aayog report provides a realistic roadmap that balances India's developmental needs with its environmental responsibilities. Experts suggest that the continued use of coal in the medium term is a pragmatic necessity for energy security, provided it's coupled with advancements in Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technologies. The findings indicate that while the era of coal is far from over, its role is evolving from a primary energy source to a strategic reserve. So, to wrap up, the transition to a low-carbon economy will depend on the pace of technological innovation and the availability of affordable financing for green infrastructure.