Dollar vs Rupee: Trump's methods and attacks, will the value of one dollar cross Rs 100?

Dollar vs Rupee: Ever since Donald Trump took power again in the US, the game between the Indian rupee and the US dollar has been a topic of discussion. The rupee has been looking stable at the level of 85 for some time, which is now being called the 'new normal'. Last year it was estimated that a dollar could cross 90 rupees by March 2025, but the rupee made a comeback and then stabilized around 85. Now that the global tariff environment is hot, geo-political tensions have eased, and crude oil is trading below $ 70, the question arises: Will the rupee see further decline? Can a dollar reach 100 rupees, and if yes, when? Let's know the analysis.

Is a declaring

System: Will a dollar go to 100 rupees? Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth Global Research, says that India's economic outlook is positive and aims to become the world's third largest economy by 2027. This goal depends on reforms, private investment and innovation. India is also working towards building strong ties with its neighbours by promoting connectivity, economic partnerships and cultural exchanges.

However, Gupta says it is difficult to predict whether the rupee will be able to touch the 100 level. Earlier it seemed impossible, but after Trump's return, some technical and political events may make it possible. Still, the 100 level seems difficult in the near future.

Fed and Trump vs India

Global uncertainty has increased with Trump's victory in the 2024 US elections. His previous tenure was dominated by policies that protected local businesses, tax cuts and increased demand for the dollar. The Federal Reserve is adopting an aggressive stance with high interest rates. Political instability in the US, such as Elon Musk's announcement of a new political party, can create volatility in the dollar, which can benefit the rupee.

Oil prices in India, widening trade deficit and possible withdrawal of foreign investment are putting pressure on the rupee. Although India's strong GDP growth and increase in agricultural production are positive, it will not be enough if the global situation is in favor of the dollar.

Will the dollar come down to 82 level?

According to Gupta, the monthly chart of USD/INR shows a broken ascending triangle pattern. Currently the price is falling around 88 and can come back to the strong support level of 82.38. If the global market confidence increases and oil prices stabilize, the rupee may strengthen in the short term. But as long as the rupee does not go below 82.38, the long term trend will be in favor of the dollar.

When will the 100 level be broken?

Gupta said that USD/INR has already broken out and is forming a bullish pattern. The 88 level is strong resistance. If it breaks, it can go to 91 and then 96-100. 82.38 is the important support level, followed by 88-91 resistance levels.

Current Situation

The rupee opened at 85.76 in the interbank foreign exchange market on Friday, touched a low of 85.91 and closed at 85.80, down 10 paise from its previous close. The rupee has depreciated by 0.36% in the past one week, while it has remained almost stable this month and year.