The 108 day conflict between the United States and Iran has officially come to an end following a significant breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations. Both nations have agreed to a peace settlement that mandates an immediate ceasefire across all fronts in the Middle East, including Lebanon, while the terms of this agreement have been made public, highlighting a primary condition that Iran won't be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons. Plus, the deal ensures the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for the global supply chain, to all international traffic, while the formalization of this pact is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, where a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) will be signed to bring the agreement into immediate effect. However, as the world watches this historic moment, geopolitical experts are questioning the necessity of the preceding conflict, especially when comparing the new terms to the 2015 JCPOA that Donald Trump previously abandoned.
The Origins of the US-Iran Nuclear Standoff
The roots of this long standing tension date back to 2002 when the international community first received intelligence regarding Iran's clandestine nuclear ambitions. It was revealed that Iran was developing nuclear programs at sites in Natanz and Arak, suggesting a future capability to produce nuclear weapons. This discovery led to mounting pressure from the United States, Europe, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Starting in 2006, the United Nations, the US, and the European Union imposed a series of stringent sanctions on Iran. these measures severely impacted Iran's oil exports and banking sectors, plunging the nation into an economic crisis and forcing its leadership to seek a path toward sanctions relief.
The Obama Era and the 2015 JCPOA
In 2009, Democrat Barack Obama succeeded Republican George W. Bush as the US President. Obama maintained that military action or perpetual sanctions weren't sustainable solutions. Between 2012 and 2013, secret negotiations between the US and Iran commenced with the mediation of Oman. At that time, Iran was led by President Dr. Hassan Rouhani, who was also inclined toward reaching an agreement with the West. These back-channel discussions paved the way for formal talks involving the US, France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran. After two years of intensive dialogue, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015.67 percent, and its enriched uranium stockpile was limited to 300 kg. Thousands of centrifuges were removed, and the IAEA was granted extensive inspection rights. In exchange, the international community provided significant economic sanctions relief to Iran.
Trump's First Term and the Withdrawal
Donald Trump, during his 2016 campaign, frequently criticized the JCPOA as a one sided and bad deal. After taking office as the 45th President of the United States in January 2017, he acted on his rhetoric. In May 2018, Trump officially withdrew the United States from the JCPOA. His primary arguments were that the deal's restrictions weren't permanent due to sunset clauses expiring after 15 years, and it failed to address Iran's ballistic missile program. Trump also criticized the deal for ignoring Iran's regional activities, specifically its support for groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Shia militias, while he believed that maximum pressure through sanctions would force Iran into a more comprehensive and better agreement.
The Second Trump Term and the New Peace Deal
Returning to power in 2025 as the 47th President, Donald Trump has now overseen a new peace agreement under his Make America Great Again framework. While the deal signed on June 19 aims to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, experts are pointing out striking similarities to the deal Trump once rejected. Although Trump has secured a commitment from Iran regarding nuclear weapons and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, critics note that the strait wasn't closed during the Obama era either. Also, the new agreement reportedly fails to include the very missile programs and regional proxy issues that Trump used as justification for exiting the 2015 deal. This has led many to ask why a 108 day war was necessary if the eventual settlement mirrors much of what was already in place years ago.