In Israeli politics, discussions about who will become the next prime minister far outweigh the recent election results. In the elections held last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's alliance secured only fifty three seats in the one hundred twenty member parliament, while opposing parties secured a total of sixty seven seats, which is more than the required majority. Looking at the raw numbers, it would appear that Netanyahu must step down because he lacks a sixty one seat majority. However, these data points aren't entirely straightforward, and political equations are emerging in Israel that fuel expectations of Netanyahu remaining the prime minister.
Opposition Support and Internal Disagreements
The opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot has secured the backing of sixty seven lawmakers before the president to form a government, while despite this, the end of Netanyahu's rule isn't guaranteed. The reason is that not all parties included in Eisenkot's support base are willing to form a government with him. Deep divisions persist among opposition parties, especially regarding an alliance with Arab parties. In the one hundred twenty member Israeli parliament, the support of sixty one lawmakers is necessary for a majority. In the election, Netanyahu's alliance won fifty three seats, while Gadi Eisenkot's opposition alliance won forty eight seats. Arab parties hold nineteen seats, while the math of sixty seven lawmakers in favor of Eisenkot relies on the support of these Arab parties, but opposition parties aren't unanimous regarding this support. If they fail to reach a consensus on this issue, forming a government could prove difficult for Eisenkot, thereby benefiting Netanyahu.
Support from Small Parties and Netanyahu's Strategy
Netanyahu's alliance holds fifty three seats, meaning he falls short of a majority by eight seats, while consequently, he must secure the support of some lawmakers from the opposition camp or smaller parties. His long time ally, the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism, holds seven seats. This party didn't recommend Netanyahu's support this time around. It has had differences with the Netanyahu government over the issue of exempting religious students from military service. If Netanyahu successfully brings this party back into his fold, he would need the support of just one more lawmaker to reach the majority. Plus, there is a possibility of getting a second chance to form a government. Israeli President Isaac Herzog may give Eisenkot the first opportunity to form a government, while he would receive twenty eight days for this, with an additional fourteen days granted if necessary. If Eisenkot fails to muster a majority during this period, the president can grant another lawmaker the opportunity to form a government, and Netanyahu could emerge as a contender in this scenario.
National Unity Government and Options for Fresh Elections
Should Netanyahu and Eisenkot reach an agreement, both camps could join forces to form a national unity government. This could involve a rotation formula for sharing the prime ministerial position. Under this arrangement, one leader would serve as prime minister for a set period, followed by the other leader taking over the responsibility. However, this path is far from easy, as Eisenkot has already rejected proposals to serve under Netanyahu's leadership. Thus, both leaders would need to shift their historical stances. If all efforts to form a government ultimately fail, Israel could face fresh elections. According to the Congressional Research Service, following failure in the initial attempt, a second and subsequently a third lawmaker may be given the chance to form a government. If a majority still fails to materialize, parliament would be dissolved, paving the way for new elections, during which time Netanyahu's current administration would function as a caretaker government, allowing him to remain prime minister.