A prominent American think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), has issued a significant warning in its latest report, indicating a potential 'war' between India and Pakistan in 2026. The think tank attributes this projected armed conflict primarily to 'increasing terrorist activities' in the region. This alarming report, citing a survey of US foreign policy experts, also notes that. The Trump administration had previously attempted to resolve ongoing disputes between New Delhi and Islamabad. The implications of such a conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors are profound, raising concerns across the international community about regional stability and global peace.
The May 2025 Clashes: A Precursor to Future Conflict
The CFR report explicitly states that the root cause of the potential conflict between India and Pakistan lies in the escalating terrorist activities originating from across the border, while this issue has been a persistent source of tension between the two nations for decades, often leading to diplomatic stalemates and military standoffs. The report emphasizes that unless these activities are effectively curbed, the prospects for lasting peace and stability in the region will remain dim, while the think tank's analysis suggests that the continuous operation of terrorist groups and their ability to launch attacks are steadily exacerbating tensions, thereby increasing the likelihood of a larger-scale confrontation. This situation poses a grave concern not only for India and Pakistan but for the entire South Asian region.
The report specifically highlights a brief conflict that erupted between India and Pakistan in May of this year, lasting for three days, while this incident is viewed as a significant precursor to the larger conflict predicted for 2026. The clashes were triggered by a cowardly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, where Pakistan-backed terrorists claimed the lives of 26 innocent civilians, while this tragic event not only caused immense grief in India but also further complicated the already strained relationship between the two countries. The attack compelled the Indian security establishment to respond decisively, leading to the initiation of 'Operation Sindoor.
Operation Sindoor: India's Decisive Response
Weeks after the Pahalgam attack, on the night of May 6, the Indian Army launched a comprehensive military operation codenamed 'Operation Sindoor. ' The primary objective of this operation was to target terrorist camps located within Pakistan, which were actively facilitating cross-border terrorist activities. The Indian Army executed this operation with remarkable precision and effectiveness. During 'Operation Sindoor,' more than 100 terrorists were neutralized, and 9 terrorist camps were completely destroyed. This action underscored India's resolve and its zero-tolerance policy against terrorism. The operation delivered a significant blow to the terrorist networks operating from Pakistan and demonstrated India's strong defensive capabilities.
Pakistan's Retaliation and De-escalation Efforts
Following 'Operation Sindoor,' between May 7 and May 10, Pakistan attempted to launch drone attacks targeting Indian military and civilian installations. However, the Indian Army successfully intercepted and thwarted all these attempts, preventing any significant damage or casualties. India's strong retaliatory actions and its high state of military preparedness compelled Pakistan's military leadership to de-escalate. On May 10, the Pakistani Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) contacted his Indian counterpart, leading to an agreement between both sides to cease firing and military actions along the Line of Control (LoC). While this agreement temporarily eased tensions, the CFR report suggests that the underlying issues remain unresolved, posing a continuous threat to peace.
Trump Administration's Efforts and Global Context
The CFR report also mentions that the Trump administration had made efforts to resolve several. Disputes, including those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, Ukraine, India-Pakistan, and Cambodia-Thailand. This indicates that the India-Pakistan conflict is viewed as part of a broader global geopolitical landscape, where various flashpoints require international attention. However, the report clarifies that despite these efforts, the roots of some disputes are so deep that their complete resolution has proven challenging, while in the case of India and Pakistan, the issue of terrorism remains a major impediment to any lasting peace agreement, overshadowing diplomatic initiatives.
Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Tensions
Beyond India and Pakistan, the CFR report also touches upon the potential for conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, while earlier this year, in October, a border dispute erupted between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This dispute escalated Notably when Pakistan conducted an airstrike on Kabul, aiming to eliminate Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Afghanistan responded strongly to this attack, further intensifying tensions between the two neighboring countries. The CFR report predicts that a minor conflict could also occur between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026, again attributing the cause to terrorist attacks. This highlights that terrorism is a pervasive regional problem affecting relations between multiple nations.
Future Challenges and Regional Stability
This warning from the American think tank carries serious implications for regional stability. Should an armed conflict erupt between India and Pakistan in 2026, the consequences could be catastrophic, especially given that both nations possess nuclear weapons. The report underscores the imperative for the international community to address this growing challenge and encourage both countries to resolve their differences through dialogue and diplomacy. A coordinated and effective strategy against terrorism is essential to ensure lasting peace in the region, while the CFR report serves as a critical wake-up call, alerting all stakeholders to the potential future challenges that lie ahead and the urgent need for proactive measures to prevent escalation.
