The national capital, Delhi, along with several neighboring states, is bracing for a shift in weather patterns as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted rainfall for Tuesday. This upcoming spell of rain is expected to be the final act of a pleasant weather phase before a steady rise in temperatures takes hold of the region, while according to the latest updates from the weather office, the current cooling trend, which has provided much-needed relief to residents, is likely to conclude soon, making way for a warmer start to the month of October.
Detailed Temperature Observations by IMD
The IMD has released comprehensive data regarding the temperature fluctuations observed in the national capital over the last 24 hours ending Monday. The report highlights that the maximum temperature in several parts of Delhi was Importantly lower than the seasonal average. 1 degrees Celsius or even lower than the normal mark. 6 to 3 degrees Celsius below the usual levels.
The minimum temperature also followed a similar downward trend in certain pockets of the city. 1 to 5 degrees Celsius below the normal range. However, in the rest of Delhi, the minimum temperatures remained within the normal parameters. This cooling effect has been attributed to specific meteorological conditions that have dominated the region over the past few days.
Forecast for Rising Temperatures from October 1
Despite the current pleasant conditions and the rain forecast for Tuesday, the weather department has indicated that this situation is set to change rapidly. Starting from October 1, the minimum and maximum temperatures across most parts of Delhi are expected to align with or exceed the normal seasonal averages. The IMD has projected that the maximum temperature will likely fluctuate between 33 and 35 degrees Celsius in the coming days. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to settle between 23 and 25 degrees Celsius, marking a clear departure from the recent cool spell.
Meteorological Factors: Western Disturbance and Cyclonic Circulation
The recent drop in temperatures and the anticipated rainfall are the results of specific atmospheric systems. The IMD explained that a Western Disturbance, combined with an upper-air cyclonic circulation situated over Northwest Uttar Pradesh and its adjoining areas, has been the primary driver of the current weather. These two systems typically bring moisture and cloud cover, leading to rainfall and a subsequent drop in mercury levels. As these systems begin to weaken and move away, the cooling effect will diminish, allowing temperatures to climb once again.
Regional Rainfall Alerts for Multiple States
The influence of these weather systems extends beyond the national capital. The IMD has issued forecasts for several states in Northwest India. During September 28 and 29, isolated areas in Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, East Rajasthan, and Western Uttar Pradesh are likely to experience rain accompanied by thunder and lightning. On top of that, Eastern Uttar Pradesh is expected to see similar weather conditions between September 28 and 30. Western Rajasthan is also on alert for rain and thunderstorms specifically on September 28.
Monsoon Withdrawal and the El Nino Factor
The Southwest Monsoon, which typically spans from June to September, officially withdrew from Delhi on September 23. With the monsoon gone and the current Western Disturbance expected to clear out, the path is open for a temperature hike. The weather office also touched upon the broader climatic influence of El Nino. The presence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean can exacerbate warming trends. El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, characterized by a change in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the associated atmospheric fluctuations. While El Nino is generally associated with global warming and higher temperatures, its opposite phase, La Nina, typically brings cooler conditions. There is also a neutral phase of the ENSO cycle that the IMD monitors to predict long-term weather trends.