On the auspicious occasion of Dhanteras 2026, purchasing gold has always been considered extremely auspicious and prosperous in Indian culture, but the massive fluctuations witnessed in gold prices throughout the year 2026 have left both investors and common buyers in a state of deep contemplation. After touching its record-breaking peak at the beginning of the year, gold prices registered a substantial correction. Consequently, everyone preparing for Dhanteras 2026 shopping is grappling with a singular question in mind: whether they should purchase gold amidst this price drop or wait further for prices to decline even lower.
According to data and analysis released by leading brokerage firm Axis Direct, domestic market gold prices have crashed by more than 20 percent from their 2026 peak levels. Several major factors have been attributed to this market correction, including persistent inflation concerns, rising crude oil prices, ongoing severe geopolitical tensions across the globe, alongside strong apprehensions of interest rate hikes by the United States Federal Reserve. Although short-term market indicators display momentary weakness and volatility, prominent market experts maintain absolute confidence in the long-term prospects of gold, while they firmly believe that this significant price correction has paved a smooth entry path into the market for long-term investors, even though short-term traders need to remain cautious regarding ongoing price fluctuations.
Investors Money Tripled Over The Past Five Years
Examining historical data over the past five years reveals that gold has delivered magnificent and historic returns to its investors. Persistent global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions between various nations, extensive gold acquisitions by central banks worldwide, alongside expectations of shifting interest rates have tremendously benefited the gold asset class. According to Axis Direct data, the domestic market price for 10 grams of gold stood at approximately 47,600 rupees in November 2021. Subsequently, by the end of October 2026 right before Dhanteras, this price surged to reach around 1,42,750 rupees per 10 grams. This indicates that over the five-year span, gold delivered a direct and bumper return of approximately 200 percent to investors. 53 percent annually, which remains considerably strong compared to any other traditional asset class.
Nevertheless, focusing on the current year, 2026 has proven exceptionally volatile. According to information provided by Monarch Networth Capital, on October 18, 2025, which marked the previous Dhanteras, the retail price for 24-karat gold in the market was approximately 1,30,860 rupees per 10 grams. In stark contrast, prior to Dhanteras 2026, this price hovered around 1,40,000 to 1,41,500 rupees per 10 grams. This reflects a year-on-year growth of merely 7 to 8 percent. Compared to the bumper triple-digit returns of the past five years, this modest year-on-year increase clearly demonstrates the massive magnitude of correction witnessed in gold following the stormy price rally of 2026.
What Should Be The Investment Strategy For Gold This Dhanteras?
Following the sharp decline from record highs, market experts suggest that Dhanteras 2026 could serve as an opportune moment for long-term investors to accumulate gold. However, keeping interest rate trajectories, crude oil price movements, and global events thoroughly in perspective, experts strongly discourage deploying lump-sum capital all at once. Axis Direct indicates that for investors who missed the previous price rally, this 20 percent price correction represents an excellent opportunity to systematically build their gold allocation through a phased approach. According to the brokerage firm, persistent high interest rate environments might trigger further short-term turbulence in gold prices. However, if domestic and global macroeconomic conditions improve going forward, gold could potentially deliver 20 to 25 percent returns by the next Dhanteras. Axis Direct has projected a target range of 1,65,000 to 1,71,000 rupees per 10 grams of gold for the upcoming Dhanteras.
Gold Prices May Reach 1.80 Lakh Rupees By Next Dhanteras
Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst for Commodities at Axis Direct, maintains an optimistic outlook on gold over an extended time horizon. She states that expectations of further interest rate hikes by the United States Federal Reserve could potentially pull gold prices down by another 5 to 8 percent. However, if geopolitical tensions de-escalate globally or inflation comes under firm control, the broader picture could transform dramatically. Under such circumstances, the United States Federal Reserve could initiate interest rate cuts, which would play a pivotal and primary role in propelling gold prices back upward. Analyst Gaglani advises investors to commence purchasing gold in installments at current lower levels rather than deploying funds in a single tranche, while she has outlined an ambitious target range of 1,65,000 to 1,80,000 rupees per 10 grams of gold by the next Dhanteras.
Speculative Bubble Burst, Perfect Timing For Genuine Investment
On the other hand, Dhruv Joglekar, Assistant Fund Manager at Monarch PMS, opines that the recent sharp plunge in gold prices has completely purged the market of excessive speculative pressures. Consequently, current market levels have turned exceptionally attractive for long-term investors. According to Monarch Networth Capital valuation models, the fair-value of gold in international markets is estimated between 3,248 and 4,595 US dollars per ounce, with a precise median midpoint resting at 3,922 US dollars. October's low price of approximately 3,870 US dollars fell squarely within this projected and sound band. Fund Manager Joglekar explicitly stated that this Dhanteras serves as a classic entry point for long-term investors, while all speculative air has been thoroughly squeezed out of the market, while the fundamental economic drivers supporting gold continue to remain exceptionally solid.