India's trade figures for October present a contrasting picture, while while the country's overall exports have seen a decline for the second consecutive month, exports to China have experienced an extraordinary surge. This increase, exceeding 40 percent, can be categorized as a record. This development occurs at a time when India's exports to the United States have registered a decline for the second consecutive month.
Record Export Growth to China Amidst Overall Decline
According to the export and import data released by the Ministry of Commerce for October, despite a general slowdown in India's overall exports, an exceptional trend has emerged in trade with China, while government reports indicate that India's exports to China increased by a remarkable 42. 35 percent, reaching 1. 62 billion US dollars. This growth rate is so significant that it's being considered a record, as such a rapid increase in India's exports to China is rarely observed. This figure is also impressive for the April-October 2025-26 period, during which exports to China grew by 24. 77 percent, reaching 10, while 03 billion dollars. This suggests that trade relations with China are reaching a new dimension, particularly on the export front.
Trade Relations and Challenges with the United States
In contrast, trade with the United States, one of India's largest trading partners, continues to face challenges. In October, India's merchandise exports to the US declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 8, while 58 percent to 6. 3 billion dollars. The primary reason cited for this decline is the heavy 50 percent duty imposed by the US on Indian products since August 27. This duty has made it difficult for Indian exporters to compete in the American market, while however, during the April-October period of the current financial year, the country's exports to the US still grew by 10. 15 percent, reaching 52. 11 billion dollars, indicating strong growth in previous months, while imports from the US during the same period increased by 9. 73 percent to 30 billion dollars. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal has emphasized that India has been able to maintain its position despite the high duties, while both countries are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement to boost two-way trade, and an Indian team is in the US for trade talks, raising hopes for mitigating these challenges in the future.
Increase in Imports from China and Festive Demand
While India's exports to China have increased, imports from China have also registered a rise. In October, imports from the neighboring country grew by 15. 63 percent, reaching 11, while 1 billion US dollars. During the first seven months of the current financial year (April-October), total imports from China increased by 11, while 88 percent to 74 billion dollars. This increase could be partly attributed to the festive month of October, which included major festivals like Diwali. During these festivals, the demand for Chinese products in Indian markets typically rises. However, it's important to note that the growth in exports has been more impressive. Than the growth in imports, which could be a positive sign for the trade balance.
Trade Performance with Other Nations
India's export performance with other countries in October showed mixed trends. Several key trading partners, including the United Arab Emirates, Netherlands, UK, Germany, Bangladesh, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Nepal, Italy, Australia, France, Belgium, South Korea, and Malaysia, recorded negative growth in India's exports. This indicates that global economic conditions and trade challenges have impacted various markets. However, exports to Hong Kong and Spain registered positive growth, demonstrating resilience in demand for Indian products in these markets, while on the import front, imports from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan declined in October, while imports from the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, UK, and Thailand increased. These figures reflect shifts in global supply chains and regional trade dynamics.
