Share Market / Sensex will cross 80,000 in 2024! Modi magic or trend?

Zoom News : Jun 29, 2023, 12:03 PM
Share Market: The language of the market is also amazing. The one who understands, his friends become different and the one who does not understand, he is ruined. In the first two days of this week, there was a great boom in the stock market and about Rs 3.50 lakh crore came in the pocket of investors. Sensex and Nifty both reached life time high. Sensex crossed the level of 64 thousand points and Nifty crossed the level of 19 thousand. Remember the report of Goldman Sachs, in which it was said that in the coming 25 years, all the big names of the world will be dwarfed in front of the Indian market and by 2075, even America will lag behind India.

If we look at the present time with the Modi government, then both the stock market and the government have proved to be very beneficial for each other. Since the victory of 2014, the speed that the stock market has caught, it has hardly caught in the era of any other leader. Now, after about 8 months, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be held and the only question coming out from every heartbeat of Mumbai's Dalal Street is whether the Modi government will return to power again? If the Sensex returns, will it cross 80 thousand marks? The answer to this will be available only after the elections next year, but there is a need to turn those pages of the stock market during the two Lok Sabha elections in the last 9 years and understand how the market reacted.

The first thing about the 2014 Lok Sabha elections

Let's take you to the election phase of the year 2014 when the election bugle was played on 7th April. On that day the Sensex was at 22343 points. By the time the results of the elections came, that is, by May 16, 2024, the figure of Sensex had crossed 24 thousand. This means that within about 40 days the Sensex had jumped by about 1800 points. Take off the image of that era and try to understand how it was decided that BJP is going to come to power and the people of the country welcomed Narendra Modi and BJP by voting heavily. The stock market also welcomed something similar.

Now let's try to understand the circumstances after that. On May 26, 2014, Narendra Modi takes the oath of Prime Minister for the first time and in 10 days the Sensex sees a further jump of 500 points and the major index of the market reaches beyond 24700 points. After one month i.e. till June 27, the Sensex crosses the level of 25 thousand. That is, from the start of elections till one month after the Modi government comes to power, the Sensex takes a jump of about 3000 points. What does it mean. After that, the Sensex reached close to 38600 points till April 10, before the election bugle of 2019. Means in Modi government 1.0, the market jumped by about 73 percent i.e. more than 16250 points. This means that the Sensex has taken a jump of 41700 points in Modi Era.

How was the mood of the market after 2019

In this period Modi power, country and market all three had to bear the brunt of Corona, but to end Corona, the government wrote a success story on the world stage, a similar script was also written by the stock market. In the year 2020, the market gave the highest return of more than 15 percent to the investors compared to all the markets of the world. But let's start from 2019 itself, when on April 11, when the bugle of Lok Sabha elections sounded, the Sensex went beyond 38600 points. After the results on May 23, the Sensex crossed 38000 points. This means that the stock market knew that the Modi government is returning to power again, in such a situation the market did not react much and only in a span of 40 days. There was a gain of 200 points. The special thing is that soon after taking the oath of the post of PM for the second time on May 30, there was a rise of about one thousand points in the Sensex within a week and the Sensex went beyond 39000 points.

It is very important to understand this fact, the success story of Sensex was written in PM Narendra Modi's journey of 9 years, it was during this period. By June 2019, there was no change in the Sensex and before the arrival of Kovid i.e. by the end of January 2020, the Sensex had reached close to 40300 points. After that, not only India but the whole world saw the effect of Covid, which took the market into the trough. After April 2020, the market started recovery and after that the market started making a new jump. Which we have already talked about. At present, the Sensex is above 64 thousand and in Modi 2.0, the Sensex has so far shown a gain of 66 percent to 25,500 points. This means that the market cap of BSE which was Rs 74,51,817.41 crore on April 7, 2014 has now increased to Rs 2,94,11,131.69 crore. That is, Rs 2,19,59,314.28 crore has come in the pocket of the investors.

How will be the future situation?

For 2024, the heartbeats of the ruling, opposition and stock market have increased. Modi government is working on the hopes of returning again in 2024. At the same time, the opposition is also working to return to power on its own. On the other hand, the heartbeat of the stock market has increased regarding whether the Sensex will be able to touch the level of 80 thousand by May 2024. Regarding this Kedia Advisory Ajay Kedia says that many factors are working in the coming one year. Fed will increase interest rates at the global economy level. At the same time, at what level the Ukraine-Russia war goes, it will also depend a lot. It will also depend on the level at which the crude oil prices go. By the way, the outlook of the Indian stock market is on the rise and by December it can touch the level of 70 thousand. There is a possibility of reaching the level of 75 thousand by the month of May. If it reaches the level of 80 thousand then there will be bonus for the market.

On the other hand, Anuj Gupta, Vice President of IIFL, says that there is a possibility of growth in the market. Because leave only one or two possible triggers at the global level, have shown their effect. From the US debt crisis to the banking crisis, everything has affected the market. It remains to be seen at what point Russia takes the Ukraine war. In such a situation, in the next one year, the market can reach the level of 70 to 75 thousand marks and if it reaches 80 thousand beyond that, then it will be like a bonus for the market.