Dollar vs Rupee / Will the rupee hit a hat-trick of decline against the dollar? The situation has worsened

Dollar vs Rupee: On the last trading day of April, when the currency market was closed, the Indian rupee was trading at 84.54 against the US dollar. This was the time when US President Donald Trump gave relief from tariffs and postponed the trade tension for 90 days. Apart from this, the GST figures were also positive, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) provided relief to the market by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in the same month. But as soon as the month of May started, the bad phase of the rupee started. After a monthly decline of Rs 1.01 in May, the rupee could not recover, and this trend continued in June and July as well.

The decline did not stop in July as well

The weakness of the rupee continued in July 2025 as well. According to the data, so far in July, the rupee has fallen by 40 paise against the dollar. On the last trading day of June, the rupee was at 85.76, which closed at 86.16 on July 18. Experts believe that the rupee is under pressure due to selling by foreign investors, rising crude oil prices, and a rise in the dollar index. Apart from this, the absence of a trade deal between India and the US and Trump's threat of 10% tariffs on BRICS countries are also posing a challenge for the Indian currency. Experts predict that the rupee may see further decline in the coming days.

Performance of May and June

The rupee fell by more than 1% in May 2025. The rupee was at the level of 84.54 at the end of April, which reached 85.55 on the last trading day of May, i.e. a decline of Rs 1.01. In June, this decline was less, but still the rupee closed 21 paise weaker at 85.76. The continuous weakness of the rupee in these two months raised questions about the stability of the Indian currency.

2% fall in 80 days

The rupee has fallen by Rs 1.62 or nearly 2% against the dollar in 80 days (April to July 18). From 84.54 at the end of April, it fell to 86.16 on July 18. This fall has completely neutralized the rise seen in March. Experts say that the rupee may remain in the range of 86 to 87 in the next six months.

Reasons for pressure on rupee

• Foreign investor selling: Foreign portfolio investors started withdrawing capital from the Indian markets, which increased the pressure on the currency.
• Crude oil prices: The surge in crude oil prices in the global market increased India's import bill, which affected the rupee.
• Dollar index rises: The strong dollar index weakened the currencies of emerging markets, including the Indian rupee.
• Uncertainty over trade deal: The delay in the trade deal between India and the US and the threat of tariffs increased uncertainty in the market.