Coronavirus / 3rd COVID wave can hit Maha in 2-4 weeks, active cases may reach 8 lakh: Task force

Mumbai: Maharashtra’s Covid-19 task force has warned that the third wave could hit the state as early as in two-four weeks given the crowding it has seen in the last three days. The total number of cases in the third wave is expected to double in than those registered in the second wave. Active cases are predicted to reach 8 lakh.

The observations were made in a review meeting chaired by Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray on Wednesday to check preparednesss measures.

"The Delta plus variant could stoke a third wave in Maharashtra. It could spread at double the rate," said an official during the presentation. 

While 19 lakh cases were registered in the first wave in 2020, the second wave saw 40 lakh cases in 2021.

Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the task force, said, “The UK is facing a third wave within four weeks of ebbing of the second wave. We could be in the same situation if we don’t stay vigilant and practise Covid-appropriate behaviour.”

Children, however, would not be affected as much because of limited exposure of those in the lower middleclass clusters to the virus. Though, it is expected that 10 per cent of the total cases could be in children or young adults, as in the first two waves.

"We believe children won’t be the target of the next wave. They may not make up for more than 3.5% of the patient pool—like it happened in the first two waves,” Joshi said.

Another senior official who was part of the meeting, said, "Uncontrolled crowds and disregard for Covid-19 norms like wearing of masks and avoiding non-essential movement are worrisome. Even in Mumbai, with certain time restrictions in place, there is free movement throughout the day.”

Maharashtra, in the last two weeks, has gone in a five-phase unlock model based on Covid-19 indicators like weekly positivity and occupancy of oxygen beds.