Iran-US Conflict / America will not attack again... Iran's cleric explains Trump's helplessness

Iran-US Conflict: After the 12-day military conflict between Iran and Israel in June, tensions in the region once again seem to be rising. Israel and the US have increased pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, while Iran has made it clear that it will continue its uranium enrichment program. Meanwhile, threats of war and counter-statements are coming from both sides, but a person close to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has claimed that the US is unable to attack Iran due to its economic and military limitations.

US's compulsion: Fear of energy crisis

On Friday, Ali Saedi, a senior cleric in Ali Khamenei's office, said, "The US does not have the ability to start another military conflict against Iran. They are afraid of rising energy prices, especially the possibility of oil prices reaching $150 a barrel." Saedi also added that the US and its allies are afraid of Iran's military strength, due to which they are reluctant to attack. However, he advised the armed forces to remain vigilant and strengthen the communication system.

Threat of war on oil prices

In case of war between Iran and Israel, the global oil market could be deeply affected. During the June conflict, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which supplies about 20% of the world's oil. If this strait is closed, oil prices could skyrocket. In addition, Iran itself is a major oil and gas producer, and in case of war, its supplies could be affected, which could deepen the global energy crisis.

Larijani's statement: Possibility of talks?

Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said in an interview with Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen channel, "If the US feels that it cannot defeat Iran through war and wants to negotiate for a real solution, then we will respond positively. But if the talks are an excuse to prepare for war, then it is useless for us." Larijani's statement on the one hand shows the possibility of a diplomatic solution, while on the other hand it also raises questions about America's intentions.

Western countries' warning: return of sanctions

France, the United Kingdom and Germany have warned Iran that if it does not resume nuclear talks and produce concrete results by the end of August, UN sanctions may be reimposed. After the military attacks launched by Israel in June and the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear installations on the ninth day, the Trump administration had claimed that Iran's nuclear program was over. However, Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear program is for civilian use only and it has no intention of making a bomb.

Future fears

At present, amid the stalling of nuclear talks and fears of military tensions, both sides are engaged in war preparations. Iran has insisted on strengthening its military preparations, while Israel and the US are constantly threatening military action. However, the US and its allies are avoiding military action due to the energy crisis and global economic pressure.