Modi-Trump Friendship / Despite the H-1B visa and tariff dispute, PM Modi remains Trump's best friend

Modi-Trump Friendship: Trade relations between the US and India are currently undergoing a tense period. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on goods imported from India, the highest in the world. This move was specifically taken in response to India's purchase of oil from Russia, which the US considers financial assistance to Moscow in the Ukraine war. Furthermore, the steep increase in H-1B visa fees has upset Indian IT professionals. Nevertheless, a senior White House official has clearly stated that the personal relationship between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is strong, and the two leaders are expected to meet soon. This statement comes as India is set to host the Quad Summit in 2025, which will include the leaders of the US, Japan, and Australia.

Tariffs and Visa Fees: A Shadow on Trade Relations

The Trump administration imposed additional tariffs of 25 percent each on India in two phases in August 2025, bringing the total rate to 50 percent. The main reason for this is India's crude oil imports from Russia, which meet approximately one-third of India's oil needs in 2025. According to the US State Department, these imports provide funding to Russia for the Ukraine war. India has rejected this as "unreasonable and unreasonable," as European countries also continue to trade with Russia.

This tariff will have a profound impact on Indian exports. Sectors such as textiles, leather, jewelry, pharmaceuticals, and seafood will be most affected, where the US is India's major market. According to a report by the Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI), the total tariff on Indian shrimp exports to the US market could reach 60 percent, affecting exports worth $20 billion in 2025.

The controversy over H-1B visas has also deepened. In September 2025, Trump imposed a fee of $100,000 (approximately Rs. 84 lakh) for new applications, 60 times higher than previously. India received 71 percent of H-1B visas in 2024, primarily in the IT sector. NASSCOM has described this as a "threat to business continuity," while the Indian government has warned of "humanitarian consequences." The White House clarified that the fee will only apply to new applications, not renewals.

Trump's Open Opinion: Friend But Tough

Trump is known for his outspoken opinions. He called India a "unilateral trade disaster" on social media, but also described Modi as "a very good friend of mine." White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said, "India will have to stop buying Russian oil before the 25 percent tariff will be lifted." US officials acknowledge differences on these issues, but negotiations are ongoing. Trump recently congratulated Modi on his 75th birthday, demonstrating the warmth of the relationship.

India has responded by emphasizing self-reliance. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "We will buy oil from wherever the price and logistics are advantageous." Experts believe this dispute could push India toward alternative markets, but its strategic partnership with the US will remain intact.

Quad Summit: A Ray of Hope

The Quad could bring a positive turn amid tensions. India will host the first Quad Leaders' Summit in 2025, likely in November. The previous summit was held in Delaware, USA, in 2024. At the Quad Foreign Ministers' Washington meeting in July 2025, the four countries discussed strategic and economic issues in the Indo-Pacific, including health security, climate change, and maritime capacity building.

A senior US State Department official said, "Trump and Modi's relationship is very positive. They could meet later this year or early 2026." Discussions are underway for Trump's visit to India, which could be possible during the Quad. Initiatives such as the 'Ports of the Future' Partnership and the 'Quad Cancer Moonshot' will continue under the Quad. India's Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar, said, "The Quad is a platform where we will address shared challenges."

US Strictness on Russian Oil Remains

The US policy on oil imports from Russia remains strict. Trump has asked European countries, including India, not to provide financial assistance to Russia. An official said, "Trump is very strict on this issue. We raise it at every forum to ensure that money does not reach Putin." India clarified that these imports are for energy security, and that discounted oil from Russia stabilizes the global market. The US has a different strategy with China, where the trade war is ongoing.

The Way Forward: Balance and Partnership

The potential Trump-Modi meeting is revolving around the Quad. Recent trade talks in New York were "encouraging," with agreements reached on reducing tariffs and resolving H-1B issues. Experts say that India may have to return to its old policy of non-alignment, but forums like the Quad will strengthen relations. Just as Trump said, "I have a special relationship with Modi," positive news could emerge in the coming months.