Lok Sabha Elections / How different is the formula of opposition unity for 2024 to defeat the BJP from 2004?

Lok Sabha Elections: Opposition parties have agreed to fight the upcoming Lok Sabha elections together against the BJP, but the opposition will decide the future strategy in the Shimla meeting. After two decades, the political fabric of the opposition alliance will once again be woven in Shimla, where the Congress had once decided to go for a nationwide alliance to defeat the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA. This bet of Congress was successful at that time, but will it work in 2024 also?

In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, with the help of the 'Shimla Agreement' and the alliance formula, the Congress took out the air of the BJP riding on 'India Shining'. After 20 years, 14 opposition parties including Congress are ready to come together to stop BJP's 'Vijayarath' riding on Modi wave. In the meeting to be held in Shimla in July, the formula for agreement between Congress and regional parties is to be made. In such a situation, the question arises that what is the difference between the opposition unity formed in 2004 and 2024?

Opposition coalition model in 2004

The Congress entered the electoral fray against the BJP-led NDA in alliance with regional parties in different states. Congress RJD-LJP-NSP in Bihar, NCP in Maharashtra, JMM-RJD in Jharkhand, TRS(BRS) in Andhra Pradesh, and DMK-MDMK-PMK in Tamil Nadu, PDP in Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur in Northeast and NCP in Goa Fought the election in alliance with

Out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats in the country, the Congress alliance contested 196 seats, out of which it won 138 Lok Sabha seats while the BJP-led NDA got 42 seats. Out of UPA's 138 parliamentary seats, Congress won 64 and its regional allies won 74 seats, while out of 43 seats in NDA, BJP won 20 and allies won 23 seats, while other parties won 15 seats.

The nature of opposition unity in 2024

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, if we look at the nature of the opposition alliance that has emerged in Patna against the BJP, about 14 parties including the Congress are involved. At present, Congress, TMC, RJD, JDU, NCP, Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), PDP, National Conference, SP, CPM, CPI, Male, DMK and JMM have agreed to contest the elections together. The Aam Aadmi Party has openly said only after the meeting of the opposition parties that it will not participate in the coalition in which the Congress will be. In such a situation, it is possible that some parties may separate from the parties which have given their approval on the alliance in the Patna meeting, while some parties may also enter.

How different is the alliance of 2024 from 2004?

The politics of the country has changed a lot in the last two decades. In 2004, the parties with which Congress entered the electoral fray in alliance in about eight states and were successful in defeating the NDA, many parties have left the Congress and parted ways. Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP, which contested the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar in alliance with the Congress in 2004, is currently with the NDA, while KCR's BRS, which contested in Andhra Pradesh (Telangana), has also parted ways.

However, in the changed political environment of the country, some parties have come together, ranging from TMC to SP, Left parties and JDU. In this way, the Congress is preparing to contest the 2024 elections by forming a bigger alliance than in 2004.

How much opposition strength in which state?

In order to defeat the BJP, the outline of the opposition alliance is being prepared in 2024, in which there are 300 Lok Sabha seats in about a dozen states. The opposition has chalked out a strategy to encircle the BJP from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. From Uttar Pradesh to Jammu-Kashmir, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, a strategy has been made to contest elections, leaving Tamil Nadu in South India, neither Andhra Pradesh, nor Telangana nor Karnataka has any allies with the Congress.

Double strength in Bihar?

Opposition unity in Bihar is descending this time with double the strength than before. Both the factions of LJP are different from the opposition unity and stand with the NDA camp. Congress will contest the 2024 elections along with all the three parties of RJD, JDU, Left.

JDU has twice the strength of LJP and Left parties can play an important role in the opposition alliance. The JDU had contested the 2004 elections in alliance with the NDA, but is now part of the opposition alliance. JDU has remained the pivot in the politics of Bihar for 20 years.

Allies increased in Maharashtra?

Congress is going to enter Maharashtra with a bigger alliance than 2004. Congress and NCP fought together in 2004, but in 2024 Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) are going to contest elections together. In this way, the BJP-led NDA in Maharashtra will have to fight with the opposition alliance.

Increased strength in Jharkhand?

The opposition alliance in Jharkhand has grown considerably since 2004. Earlier, Congress-JMM-RJD contested elections together, but in 2024 JDU and Left parties will also be involved in it. The opposition camp is preparing to enter the electoral fray with a big force.

Three parties together in Jammu and Kashmir

This time in Jammu and Kashmir, the opposition party wants to fully unite and fight against the NDA. In such a situation, the opposition unity includes Congress, National Conference and PDP. This time the National Conference has increased.

SP's support in UP

In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress had entered the electoral fray alone in the 2004 elections, but in 2024 it is getting the support of the SP. In the Patna meeting, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav indicated to contest the elections together with the opposition. In this way, along with Congress and SP, RLD can also join the battleground of UP in 2024 against BJP.

TMC is also ready in Bengal

In West Bengal, Congress had entered the electoral fray alone in 2004, but in 2024, Congress can get TMC's support against BJP. Mamta Banerjee has also indicated this and if the left parties also come together then the contest can be very interesting.

Congress alone in these states

The Congress can go it alone in states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh, as it has a direct mandate in most of these states. The contest is with BJP. In Telangana, Congress will have to compete with KCR's BRS and BJP, while in Andhra Pradesh it will have to fight against BJP and YSR Congress. Apart from this, Congress will have to fight JDS-BJP in Karnataka, while in Kerala Congress-led UDF is fighting against Left-led LDF.