Attention / IIT Kanpur experts predicts Coronavirus fourth wave may hit India around 22 June

Vikrant Shekhawat : Feb 28, 2022, 07:49 AM
New Delhi: If you think that Coronavirus is over and there is no more danger, then you are wrong. Experts have predicted the fourth wave (Corona Fourth Wave in India) with the slowing down of the third wave in the country. He says that the fourth wave of corona may start around 22 June, the effect of which is likely to continue till 24 October. However, how severe the fourth wave will be, it will be known only after the new variant of Corona comes to the fore.

Effect will last for 4 months

Researchers at IIT Kanpur have said that the fourth wave of COVID-19 will last for at least four months. This prediction was published on 24 February on the preprint server MedRxiv. Experts say that the curve of the fourth wave will reach its peak from August 15 to August 31. After that it will start decreasing. However, nothing can be said on its seriousness at the moment.

Prediction proved to be accurate

This is the third time that researchers from IIT Kanpur have predicted the corona wave in the country. His predictions, especially about the third wave, have been almost accurate. This research was done by SP Rajeshbhai, Subhra Shankar Dhar and Shalabh of Mathematics and Statistics Department of IIT Kanpur. For its prediction, this team has used statistical models.

calculated in this way

Researchers said that the fourth wave of corona can come about 936 days after the start of the corona epidemic. In such a situation, the fourth wave (estimated) can start from 22 June, which will end on 24 October after reaching the peak. The team used a method called 'bootstrap' to calculate the gap at the time point of the fourth wave's peak. He said that this method can be used in other countries to predict the fourth and other wave.