Business / India's COVID-19 vaccine market could be worth $6 bn: Bernstein

New Delhi: The race to develop a Covid-19 vaccine is on, and the market could possibly be worth $6 billion in India in terms of sales for the coming three years, with the public exchequer expected to foot about $2 billion to immunise half the population required to reach herd-immunity levels, according to a report by Mint quoting international brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein.

"If the government chose to vaccinate the entire population, they would need to set aside an additional $6 billion. This would imply an almost 100 percent increase to the current Central Government Healthcare budget," Bernstein analyst Nithya Balasubramanian is quoted as saying in the report.

Assuming that the government would immunise approximately 30% of India’s population, Balasubramanian priced the vaccine at $3 (Rs 222 approximately) per dose for government procurement. The remainder of the population will have to buy the vaccine privately, which would cost around $6.

Gavi, a member of the Vaccine Alliance and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation with Serum Institute of India, has approved of the estimated vaccine price.

"The throughput can, of course, be increased but cold chain storage facilities and manpower (ASHA workers, ANMs and other last-mile delivery support workers) will prove to be bottlenecks. Having worked on public-private-partnership models in my earlier life, I can say with confidence that manpower will be the largest bottleneck to faster implementation," Balasubramanian, a former Cipla executive, is quoted as saying in the report.

According to the report, covering 340 million people with two doses each would take the government about three years.