Reserve Bank Of India / Is the fight against inflation over? RBI will take a big decision on loan EMI

Vikrant Shekhawat : Jun 07, 2024, 08:27 AM
Reserve Bank Of India: On Thursday, the European Central Bank has cut its interest rates. The ECB has decided to cut interest rates after 5 years. Now the time of test is for the Reserve Bank of India. Whose monetary policy meeting will end today i.e. on Friday. After that the RBI Governor will announce the decision taken regarding interest rates. Inflation figures are at the lowest level of many months. The ECB has announced a cut in interest rates.

The Fed Reserve may also announce interest rates soon. In such a situation, the people of India have high expectations from this meeting. This meeting has taken place at a time when the results of the Lok Sabha elections have come in the country, but no one has taken oath for the post of Prime Minister. It is reported that on June 9, i.e. Sunday, the oath will be taken for the post of PM.

The special thing is that the interest rates were increased from May 2022 to February 2023. The repo rate was increased by 2.50 percent. After which the policy rate came down to 6.50 percent. There has been no change in interest rates since then. This means that there has been no change in interest rates in the last 7 meetings. The biggest question is whether there will be a cut in interest rates in the meeting to be held on Thursday or not?

No possibility of change this time too

Experts believe that RBI will maintain the status quo on the policy rate amid inflation concerns. However, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada have started cutting their key policy rates. After the deliberations of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Das will inform about the decision at 10 am. The three-day meeting of the MPC started on Wednesday. Experts said that since economic growth is accelerating, the MPC can avoid cutting the policy rate.

Inflation has decreased for two consecutive months, but

Even though the inflation figures were seen below 5 percent in the last two months. While the inflation figures for the month of April came down to 4.83 percent. Whereas before that, the inflation figures were seen at 4.85 percent in the month of March. This means that inflation is under control. But according to the SBI Research report, the Consumer Price Index based inflation is expected to be 5 percent in May (the data will be released in the second week of this month). RBI estimates that India's inflation rate can be 4.5 percent in the current financial year.

Focus will be on monsoon

On the other hand, monsoon is also going to be in full focus in the RBI MPC meeting. What kind of monsoon will be and how it will be. On the basis of that, inflation and GDP estimates will also be seen. Also, what kind of agricultural growth can be seen in the country. On the other hand, there is also going to be a discussion about what kind of role the manufacturing and service sector will play. The RBI Governor can also mention all these things in his speech.