Widespread protests continue in Iran against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Iranian women consistently demonstrating for their freedom. The Iranian government has adopted a very strict stance on these protests, labeling them as attempts to appease the United States, while the government has issued warnings that those involved in the demonstrations won't be spared and has advised parents to keep their children away from such activities. The administration has also made it clear that if anyone participates in a protest and is shot, no complaints will be entertained later, while during these protests, more than 116 people have been killed and over 2,600 have been arrested, highlighting the gravity of the situation.
US President's Warning and Speculation
US President Donald Trump has responded to Iran's severe internal situation via social media. He stated that Iran is looking for freedom and directly warned the Iranian government that if protesters continue to be shot, the US government will respond, while following this statement, international speculation has intensified that the United States might soon launch a military attack on Iran. Trump was recently given a detailed briefing on various military. Options against Iran, including potential attacks on non-military sites in Tehran. This information further fuels the speculation that the US might be preparing for a significant action against Iran.
Will the US Attack Iran?
Recently, after repeated warnings, the US detained the President of Venezuela, along with his wife, placing them in a detention center in the US. Subsequently, the US also spoke of controlling Venezuelan oil companies. Now, the US President has issued a similar stern warning to. Iran, leading to speculation about a potential US attack on Iran. However, according to US officials, military action in Iran wouldn't be as straightforward as in Venezuela, as Iran possesses a strong military and a different geographical landscape. Thus, the likelihood of a direct military attack seems lower. US officials suggest that if an attack does occur, it might focus on Iranian forces using violence to suppress protests. However, such an action would also pose significant risks to US troops. Also, Iran's retaliatory actions after an attack could cause substantial damage. To the US, Israel, and several other countries, potentially escalating regional conflict.
Threat of Rising Oil Prices
Iran has explicitly warned that if the US attacks, it will retaliate against US military bases, ships, and Israel. According to experts, in the event of an attack on Iran,. The US and Israel could suffer significant military, economic, and humanitarian losses. Iran could launch missile or drone attacks on US bases, such as Al Udeid Base in Qatar, and on Israel. Iran possesses ballistic missiles and proxy militias like Hezbollah and the Houthis, which could further exacerbate regional instability. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the US has a total of 19 military bases in the Middle East, eight of which are permanent bases located in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran could target all these military installations, posing a serious threat to the US military presence.
If Iran is attacked, over 40,000 US troops stationed in the Middle East would face direct danger. Also, cyberattacks or terrorist activities could increase, creating an environment of insecurity across the entire region, while iran could launch direct missile attacks on Israel, raising fears of severe damage to Israel. Another serious consequence could be Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global oil trade. The closure of this waterway would cause international oil prices to skyrocket, negatively impacting the economies of the US, Israel, and other nations. Oil prices in India could also rise sharply, leading to increased inflation and economic pressure.
Long-Term Damage to the US
An attack on Iran could also lead to attacks on oil fields in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, which could completely destabilize the global energy market. Also, a large-scale refugee crisis could emerge, potentially becoming the largest crisis since World War II. Such an attack could cause internal political division within the US and severe international criticism, damaging its global image. Overall, the situation arising from a US attack on Iran carries the risk of millions of deaths. Also, the US could face trillions of dollars in economic losses and prolonged instability, weakening its economic and strategic position.
**When Has the US Attacked Iran Before?
The US has never openly fought a full-scale war against Iran but has undertaken military or covert actions on several occasions. These actions were primarily aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program, terrorism, or regional influence. In 1953, a CIA-backed coup removed Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. During the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, the US supported Iraq, attacked Iranian ships (Operation Praying Mantis), and mistakenly shot down an Iranian passenger plane in 1988, killing 290 people. In 2020, Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike. In 2025, attacks on Iranian nuclear sites (Operation Midnight Hammer) were part of a war with Israel. All these incidents indicate a long history of tension between the US and Iran.
Impact of US Attack on Iran for India
A US attack on Iran would primarily have economic and strategic implications for India, as. India has historical ties with Iran and heavily relies on the Middle East for oil. India imports approximately 40-50% of its crude oil from the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a. Surge in oil prices, potentially reducing India's GDP growth by 0. 3% and increasing inflation by 0. 4%, while oil imports from Iran are already affected by sanctions, but a war would disrupt the entire supply chain. This could lead to a decline in the Indian stock market, weakening of the rupee, and disruptions in trade routes. India's exports, such as chemicals and rice, could also be severely affected, increasing the trade deficit.
India's Challenge of Strategic Balance
In this situation, India would have to maintain a delicate strategic balance between the US, Israel, and Iran. India is connected to Iran through the Chabahar Port and trade, while also sharing defense technology with Israel. A war would increase regional instability, posing a serious threat to the. Safety of approximately 9 million Indian expatriates residing in the Middle East. India might choose to remain neutral in the event of a war, but it would have to increase its reliance on Russia or other sources to cope with the energy crisis. Overall, this situation could cause significant damage to India's economy, but India's flexible foreign policy and diplomatic efforts could mitigate these effects. India would need to strengthen its energy security and regional stability strategies to deal with this potential crisis.
