Bihar Elections 2025 / NDA or India... Who will form the government in Bihar? A shocking survey has emerged

Bihar Elections 2025: With the announcement of the dates for the Bihar Assembly elections, political activity has intensified. Voting will take place in two phases on November 6 and 11, and the results will be declared on November 14. Meanwhile, all eyes are on who will hold power in Bihar this time. Will the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) retain power, or will the Grand Alliance led by the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) emerge victorious? Will Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj Party be able to pull off a major upset? A recent IANS-Matrize survey attempts to answer these questions, covering everything from vote share to seat projections.

NDA Victory Prediction

According to the survey, the NDA is highly likely to win again in Bihar. The NDA is projected to receive around 49% of the vote share, which could translate into 150-160 seats. This figure indicates a strong position for the double-engine government led by Nitish Kumar. The survey also states that despite the anti-incumbency wave, the opposition will not be able to shake Nitish Kumar's position.

Grand Alliance Position

The Grand Alliance of RJD-Congress-Left parties is expected to get 36% vote share, which could translate into between 70-85 seats. Both RJD and BJP are seen as the best-performing parties with 21% vote share. However, this figure is not considered sufficient for RJD to reach power. Congress's performance is also expected to be weak this time, with a mere 8% vote share.

Jan Suraj and Other Parties

Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj Party could bring a new twist to this election. According to the survey, Jan Suraj is expected to get 7% vote share, which could translate into 2-5 seats. Additionally, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and other smaller parties are expected to win 7-10 seats with a 7% vote share. Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM is projected to have a limited impact with a 1% vote share.

JDU and Other Allies

Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United (JDU) is expected to perform better than in the last assembly elections. Surveys predict the JDU to win 60-65 seats with an 18% vote share. Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) may win 4-6 seats with a 6% vote share.

Bihar's Political Climate

This election in Bihar is going to be interesting in many ways. The voter turnout remains to be seen, given Nitish Kumar's credibility, the RJD's aggressive strategy, and Prashant Kishor's new political innings. While surveys predict an NDA victory, Bihar's complex caste and social dynamics have always made election results unpredictable.

Will Nitish Kumar once again prevail with his political acumen, or will the RJD pull off a major upset? Will Jan Suraj emerge as a new hope? These questions will be answered on November 14th, when the people of Bihar will decide their path to power.