Bihar Election Results / Nitish Kumar's Necessity or Compulsion? Hints of a New NDA Alliance

The counting of votes for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 is currently underway, and early trends indicate a significant victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). These trends have ignited a flurry of speculation within the state's political circles, particularly concerning the future role of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, while while an NDA victory appears almost certain, questions are emerging about whether Nitish Kumar will retain his central position within the alliance, or if circumstances might compel a shift in his political trajectory.

NDA's Dominance in Early Trends

According to the ongoing trends, the NDA is steadily moving towards a clear majority in Bihar. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to emerge as the single largest party, leading in the highest number of constituencies. Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) is also ahead in a substantial number of seats, though trailing behind the BJP. Conversely, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties, appears to be Notably lagging in the trends. Tejashwi Yadav is seen struggling to salvage the prestige of his party, the RJD, while the JDU is leading in over 80 seats. This evolving situation signals the potential commencement of a new chapter in Bihar politics, where the balance of power within the ruling coalition could undergo a significant transformation.

The Curious Case of JDU's Deleted Tweet

Amidst these electoral trends, an incident created a stir in political circles. The official 'X' (formerly Twitter) handle of the Janata Dal (United) shared a picture of Nitish Kumar with the caption, "Na bhooto na bhavishyati.. Nitish Kumar Bihar ke Mukhyamantri the, hain aur rahenge. " (Neither in the past nor in the future.., while nitish Kumar was, is, and will remain the Chief Minister of Bihar. ) This post was deleted shortly after, while the deletion of this tweet has raised numerous questions. Was it indicative of internal dissent within the party? Or was it a subtle hint of a potential new equation within the alliance, while this incident has further fueled the ongoing speculation surrounding Nitish Kumar's Chief Ministerial position. Earlier, a poster displayed outside the party headquarters in Patna also declared, 'Tiger abhi zinda hai' (The tiger. Is still alive), attempting to project Nitish Kumar's strong leadership, but the deleted tweet conveyed a different narrative altogether.

A New Equation: NDA Without Nitish?

One of the most significant speculations revolves around the possibility of the NDA forming a government in Bihar without Nitish Kumar, while based on the numbers, this appears to be a viable option. If the BJP, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) were to unite, they could comfortably cross the majority mark, while according to current trends, the BJP is leading in 95 seats, LJP (R) in 20 seats, HAM in 5 seats, and RLM in 4 seats. Adding these together totals 124 seats, which is 2 more than the 122 seats required for a majority, while experts suggest that the BJP could further bolster its numbers by potentially bringing in 3 MLAs from Congress, 2 from the Left, and 1 from BSP, thereby strengthening its position. This scenario opens up the possibility of a BJP Chief Minister in Bihar for the very first time.

Amit Shah's Shifting Stance

In this unfolding drama, the statements made by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in June 2025 have also become highly relevant. In an interview, Shah had stated, "Who will be the Chief Minister of Bihar will be decided by time, but it's clear that we will contest this election under the leadership of Nitish Kumar, while " He had further added, "Who am I to decide who will be the Chief Minister? All allies will jointly elect the leader of the legislative party after the elections. " However, he later clarified his statement, saying, "There is no confusion in this, while i once again clarify that Nitish is the Chief Minister and will remain so after winning the elections. " These statements are now being reinterpreted in the current context, where the power dynamics within the NDA are poised for a potential shift. Shah's initial statement is now viewed as an indication that the BJP had always considered alternatives to Nitish Kumar's leadership.

Mahagathbandhan's Struggle and Nitish's Limited Options

Considering the second scenario, if Nitish Kumar were to decide to align with the Mahagathbandhan, the situation could prove challenging for him. According to the trends, the JDU is securing 84 seats, RJD 25 seats, Congress 5 seats, Left 3 seats, and Others 6 seats, while adding these together totals 117 seats, which is 5 short of the 122 seats required for a majority. This implies that Nitish Kumar wouldn't be able to form a government with the Mahagathbandhan. Alone and would require additional support to reach the majority, which could be a complex undertaking. This situation limits Nitish Kumar's options and might compel him to reconsider his role within the NDA. This marks a critical juncture in Bihar politics, where the dynamics of alliances and the future of individual leadership hang in the balance.