US Blockade of Iran Enters Week 3: Oil Industry Faces Permanent Collapse

The US naval blockade of Iran has officially entered its third week. Named 'Economic Fury' by the United States, the operation aims to completely dismantle Iran's oil industry. Experts suggest that the chances of the Strait of Hormuz reopening remain slim, Importantly increasing the risk of a major war across the Middle East. There are growing fears that the Gulf of Oman, where US warships are already stationed, could become the epicenter of this potential large-scale conflict. Currently, Iran is fighting on two fronts: managing a domestic crisis of daily essentials and food shortages, and the more critical task of protecting its oil wells on a war footing. If Iran is forced to halt oil production, its long-term oil capacity could suffer permanent damage.

Russian Support via the Caspian Sea Route

Since the Caspian Sea is landlocked, the US military can't enforce a blockade there. Russia is utilizing this route to provide critical aid to Iran. Vessel movement has intensified between the Russian ports of Astrakhan and Makhachkala and the Iranian ports of Bandar Anzali and Amirabad. While these routes were previously used for transporting weapons and drones, Russia is now sending wheat, barley, corn, metals, wood, and chemicals to Iran. While this may alleviate the shortage of food and daily necessities to some extent, it can't prevent the potential destruction of Iran's oil wells.

Critical Oil Storage Levels and US Pressure

Reports indicate that Iran is currently producing approximately 2 million barrels of oil per day, but its total storage capacity is limited to 120 million barrels. This capacity is expected to be fully exhausted by April 29. Iran has begun filling its large tankers with oil, but even those are nearly full, with oil-laden tankers now floating in the Persian Gulf. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in a post that remaining IRGC leaders are perishing like rats trapped in sewage pipes. He claimed that the US blockade has pushed Iran's oil industry to the verge of a production shutdown, which will soon lead to severe petrol shortages in the country.

Technical Risks of Halting Oil Production

Stopping oil production entirely presents a massive challenge for Iran due to two primary technical reasons. ' If oil stops flowing in the pipelines, it mixes with water and gases to form an acid that causes rapid corrosion and melting of pipeline and pumping station components. This would lead to severe damage when attempting to restart the pumps in the future. Second, Iran's older oil wells have a layer of water beneath the oil. If pumping stops, this water can rise and penetrate the rock formations, permanently trapping the oil. Also, a drop in pressure could cause the rocks to stick together or collapse, making future extraction nearly impossible, while it's estimated that Iran could permanently lose 20% to 30% of its future production capacity under these conditions.

The United States has made it clear that it won't lift the blockade without an agreement. Consequently, Iran may find itself with no choice but to engage in a high-stakes conflict to save its oil wells. There are concerns that Iran might use small boats or container ships to launch drone attacks against US Navy warships. If such an escalation occurs, it would mark the beginning of a dangerous second phase of the conflict, potentially engulfing the entire Middle East.