- India,
- 29-Apr-2026 09:45 PM IST
The voting process for the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 concluded on Wednesday, marking the end of a high-stakes political battle. Following the completion of the polls, various exit poll agencies have released their predictions, suggesting a potential historic shift in the state's political landscape. According to the majority of these exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to form the government in West Bengal for the first time. This would signify the end of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) rule, which has been in power since 2011. However, these figures remain projections, and the final results will be officially declared on May 4.
Detailed Seat Projections by Major Exit Polls
Several agencies have provided specific seat ranges for the 294-member assembly. People’s Insight predicts TMC to secure between 138-150 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 144-154 seats. The Congress and Left parties are projected to get 0-1 seats each. PMARQ's exit poll estimates TMC winning 118-138 seats and the BJP securing a comfortable majority with 150-175 seats, leaving 2-6 seats for others. Chanakya Strategies forecasts 130-140 seats for TMC and 150-160 seats for BJP, with zero seats for Congress and the Left. Similarly, MATRIZE predicts 125-140 seats for TMC and 146-161 seats for BJP, with others potentially taking 6-10 seats.
Significant Leads and Outlier Predictions
Praja Polls has projected a massive victory for the BJP, estimating 178-208 seats, while TMC is relegated to 85-110 seats. Poll Diary suggests a range of 99-127 seats for TMC, 142-171 for BJP, 3-5 for Congress, 2-3 for the Left, and 0-1 for others. JVC predicts a closer contest with TMC at 131-152 and BJP at 138-159 seats. Interestingly, People’s Pulse offers a wider range, projecting TMC between 117-187 seats and BJP between 95-110 seats. This particular poll also allocates 1-3 seats to Congress, 0-1 to the Left, and 1-2 to others. Despite these variations, the overall trend in most polls points toward a BJP advantage over the incumbent TMC.
Election Schedule and Historical Context
The elections for the 294 seats were conducted in two distinct phases. The first phase took place on April 23, covering 152 constituencies, while the second phase concluded this Wednesday with voting in the remaining 142 seats. To reach the majority mark in the West Bengal Assembly, a party or coalition needs at least 148 seats. The final outcome will be revealed on May 4, alongside the results of four other states, including Assam. In the previous 2021 assembly elections, the TMC had secured a landslide victory with 215 seats, enabling Mamata Banerjee to form the government for a third consecutive term, while the BJP won 77 seats and the ISF secured one seat.
As the state awaits the final counting of votes, the exit poll data has set the stage for a potentially transformative result in West Bengal. While the BJP appears to be on the verge of a historic win according to most surveys, the TMC's actual performance will only be confirmed when the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) are opened on May 4. The political future of the state remains hanging in the balance until the final tally is announced.
