Indian Population News / India's population will decrease after 2061, China's population will be double

Indian Population: According to McKinsey's latest demographic report and the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2024, India's population will see significant changes in the coming decades. It is estimated that India's population will reach its peak of 1.7 billion in 2061, after which it will gradually start declining. Despite this, India will remain the most populous country in the world till the end of the century. According to UN estimates, India's population will be 1.5 billion by 2100, which will be more than double the population of China (633 million) at that time.

Fertility rate and population decline

According to McKinsey's report, India's fertility rate is currently 1.98 children per woman, which is less than the replacement rate of 2.1. This low fertility rate is slowing population growth. The UN report shows that India's population will reach 1.69 billion in 2054 and after peaking at 1.70 billion in 2061, it will fall to 1.5 billion by 2100. China's population, on the other hand, is 1.41 billion in 2024, which will shrink to 1.21 billion by 2054 and 633 million by 2100. China's ultra-low fertility rate (1.14 children per woman) will cause its population to fall to 204 million by 2054 and 786 million by the end of the century.

Challenges facing India

Growing burden of ageing population

The McKinsey report warns that India's growing number of elderly people will put pressure on the economy. By 2050, there will be only 4.6 working people for every elderly person, up from 10 at present. By 2100, this ratio will further decline to 1.9, which is similar to the situation in Japan today. This will increase the burden of elderly care on the government exchequer and families.

Declining contribution of young population

From 1997 to 2023, India's young population contributed 0.7 per cent per year to the growth of GDP per capita. However, by 2050 this contribution will decline to 0.2 per cent, which may affect economic growth.

Opportunities for India

Women's participation in the labor force

The report suggests that India can deal with demographic challenges by increasing women's labor force participation. Currently only 29% of women in the age group of 20-49 years are involved in the labor force, while in other emerging economies this figure is 50-70%. Increasing women's participation will not only boost economic growth, but will also deal with the challenge of aging population.

Increasing share in global consumption

India's share in global consumption will increase from 9% in 2024 to 16% in 2050. This reflects India's growing global importance. India's young population structure (median age 28.4 years in 2024) makes it more dynamic than China (median age 39.6 years). However, by 2100, India's median age will be 47.8 years and China's 60.7 years.

Strategy for India

• India has a golden opportunity to convert its demographic strength into economic power. Experts believe that the following steps can put India in a strong position on the global stage:
• Improvement in education and health services: Quality education and health services will increase the productivity of the population.
• Employment opportunities for women: Policy reforms and social changes are necessary to increase women's participation in the labour force.
• Technological innovation: Adoption of new technologies can help India increase productivity and competitiveness.