Israel-Iran war / Will Trump's entry into the Israel-Iran war lead to a huge drop in the market?

Last week was full of excitement for the stock market. Sensex-Nifty bounced back with a gain of 1.6% on Friday, but Middle East tensions have raised concerns. US-Iran conflict, oil prices, FII movements, flood of IPOs and corporate announcements—all together will decide the direction of Monday.

Israel-Iran war: Last week was nothing short of a thriller for the Indian stock market. After three consecutive days of decline, Sensex and Nifty made a strong comeback on Friday, ending the week with a 1.6% gain. However, this relief rally doesn’t seem entirely trustworthy, as global turmoil continues to loom. The active involvement of the US in the Israel-Iran conflict has investors on edge. Now, all eyes are on Monday—what will be the market’s next move?

🌍 Israel-Iran Conflict: US Entry Escalates Tensions

The flames of war have intensified. The US has supported Israel by launching strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. In response, Iran has threatened retaliation. Fears of a major war in the Middle East have created volatility in the markets. This geopolitical tension is expected to have a direct impact on investor sentiment and market performance.

📉 Wall Street to Set the Tone

There wasn't much movement in US markets on Friday:

Dow Jones: Closed with a 0.08% gain
S&P 500: Fell 0.22%
Nasdaq: Dropped 0.51%

Indian markets will take cues from Wall Street on Monday. If global tensions don’t escalate further, a slight relief rally could be seen.

📈 IPO Storm: A Test for Investors

This week, 13 new IPOs are hitting the market, aiming to raise around ₹16,000 crore.

HDB Financial Services – the NBFC arm of HDFC Bank – will be the biggest attraction.
8 companies will list on the SME segment as well.

Investors will need to decide carefully where to allocate their funds.

🏢 Corporate Actions Galore

Around 48 companies will announce dividends, stock splits, rights issues, or bonus shares. Notable names include:

HDFC Bank
Vedanta
HUL
Polycab
Bajaj Finserv
Cipla

These announcements will impact individual stocks and overall market sentiment.

💹 FII vs DII: Who Will Dominate?

On Friday, FIIs bought stocks worth ₹7,940 crore.
DIIs sold stocks worth ₹3,049 crore.
However, FIIs have sold a total of ₹4,192 crore in June so far.

If FIIs return to aggressive selling mode, it could trigger deeper corrections. DII activity will also be crucial in maintaining balance.

📊 Technical Outlook: What’s Nifty’s Next Target?

According to technical charts, Nifty formed a bullish candle on Friday.

Next resistance level: 25,200
Post-breakout target: 25,500
Key support level: 24,700
Danger zone: Below 24,400, downside risk increases significantly

💱 Rupee & Crude Oil: Two Major Factors

Rupee: Closed at ₹86.58 per dollar on Friday; Trump's cautious stance gave some relief
Crude Oil: Up 10% in the past month
- WTI: $74.04
- Brent: $77.01